This tweet shared on October 8, 2022, claims that a recent research by the Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) published a poll allegedly predicting Raila Odinga’s presidential win in 2027.
Background
During elections, opinion polls play a great role in gauging, communicating, and revealing voters’ opinions on a candidate or a political party. To political actors, this kind of information has become newsworthy.
About two months after Kenya went into its general elections, Azimio La Umoja party leader, Raila Odinga met with Bunge La Mwananchi on October 11, 2022. During this meeting, Raila is quoted faulting the current regime for a number of things. One being failure to honour the promises they made during the campaign period. Speaking at Jevanjee Gardens, Raila said that in his manifesto, President William Ruto had presented unachievable goals to Kenyans.
Verification
Between October 8, 2022 when this tweet went up the internet and October 11, 2022 when Raila Odinga met members of the Bunge La Mwananchi, advanced searches don’t show any poll published by TIFA, neither on Twitter, Facebook nor their official website. The latest report was a poll published between July 31, 2022 and August 1, 2022.
Additionally, in an email, TIFA flagged claims on this tweet saying, they “have not published such a poll.”
Verdict
Claims that TIFA published a poll predicting Raila Odinga’s win in 2027 are FALSE.
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